Digital Desk: While the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in India is winding down, researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K) believe the fourth wave will arrive around June 22 and last until October 24.
However, the outbreak's severity will be determined by the introduction of new variations, vaccination status, and the provision of booster doses, they warned.
According to the Times of India, IIT-K researchers anticipate that it will last at least four months if a fourth wave occurs. On February 24, the statistical forecast was published on the preprint server MedRxiv. According to their report, the curve will peak from August 15 to 31 and then drop.
The experts' forecasts have been near-perfect the last three times, with only a few days' difference. The group, headed by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh of IIT-department K's of mathematics and statistics, utilized a statistical model to estimate the fourth wave in India, which might come 936 days after the Covid-19 outbreak's original available date (January 30, 2020).
"As a result, the fourth wave (assumed) begins on June 22, peaks on August 23, and ends on October 24," they wrote. The scientists employed a technique known as "Bootstrap" to calculate the confidence interval for the time point of a fourth wave's peak. According to the studies, the strategy can also predict a fourth and another surge in other countries.
The researchers began working on the fourth wave forecast after being impressed by the accuracy of the third wave forecast, which was based on data from Zimbabwe and used a blend of Gaussian distributions.
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