• After falling for three months, retail inflation increases to 7% in August.

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    After falling for three months, retail inflation increases to 7% in August.




    Digital Desk: Due to rising food prices, retail inflation
    increased to 7% in August, breaking a three-month downward trend. This put
    additional pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to increase interest rates
    more quickly in order to rein in price increases.



    This
    demonstrates that inflation has remained above the RBI's tolerance band of 2–6%
    in each month this year.



    Food
    prices increased dramatically, making up about half of the CPI basket, as a
    record heatwave drove up the cost of staple commodities including wheat, rice,
    and pulses, further straining already tight household budgets.



    The
    results show that food basket inflation increased to 7.62% in August from 6.69%
    in July and 3.11% in August 2021.



    Negative
    seasonality sets in for September-November and adds weight to price pressures
    due to erratic monsoon patterns across the nation that indicate additional crop
    damages.



    Despite
    the recent sharp down in crude oil prices, fuel and light inflation increased
    10.8%, indicating that the benefits of lower commodity prices have not yet been
    felt and will be muted even when they do because they make up a very small
    fraction of all categories.



    According
    to the RBI's predictions, inflation would continue to rise until the beginning
    of 2023, exceeding the target range's upper end of 6%.



    While the
    governor of the RBI stated earlier this month that supply-driven inflation in
    the country has peaked and will likely fall to approximately 5% by the
    April–June quarter of 2019, the recent increase in pricing pressures is not
    encouraging.



    The governor
    of the RBI added that the goal of the strategy was to minimize any negative
    effects on economic expansion while containing inflation. The central bank is
    under pressure from the most recent consumer price-based inflation, however, to
    take a more aggressive stance and adopt the major Western central banks' stance
    on policy: fight inflation at all costs, including a recession.



    In August, the central bank increased its benchmark policy
    repo rate by 50 basis points (bps), bringing the total increase since May to
    140 bps. On September 30, it is expected to make its next policy decision,
    which is forecast to increase by less than 50 bps.



    Further analysis of the data revealed that for the third
    consecutive month, rural inflation was higher than urban price pressures.



    Separately, according to data from the National Statistical
    Office (NSO), India's industrial production increased 2.4% in July relative to
    the same month last year, down from July's annual growth rate of 3.2%.