In 1950, there were over 16 million live births in India; by 2021.......
Digital desk: India's striking decline in fertility rates over the previous seven decades has been made clear by a recent international research study that was published in The Lancet journal. India's fertility rate fell from almost 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021, according to the report, and additional declines to 1.29 and 1.04 by 2050 and 2100, respectively, are predicted.
The results are consistent with worldwide patterns, wherein the TFR decreased from more than 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021. According to projections, there will be a further decrease to 1.8 and 1.6 by 2050 and 2100, respectively.
The number of live births worldwide in 2021 was 129 million, up from roughly 93 million in 1950 but down from a peak of 142 million in 2016. In 1950, there were over 16 million live births in India; by 2021, that number had dropped to 22 million, and by 2050, it was expected to drop to 13 million.
The report emphasizes that many low-income nations will continue to struggle with high fertility concerns throughout the 21st century, despite the worldwide trend of reducing fertility. The world will be demographically split as a result of chronically high fertility rates in some areas, especially in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa, according to researchers from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators.
Furthermore, the report predicts a change in the livebirth distribution, with low-income nations predicted to contribute substantially more to global livebirths between 2021 and 2100—nearly tripling their share from 18% to 35%.
The researchers emphasize the significant effects on economies, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment in light of these population upheavals. A "clear demographic divide" between middle-to-high-income and low-income areas is something they warn of, emphasizing the necessity for creative solutions to deal with the problems brought on by an aging population.
The findings have significant consequences for India, as noted by Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India (PFI). These implications include issues related to an aging population, a scarcity of labor force, and potential social inequalities stemming from gender preferences. She advocated for all-encompassing strategies to deal with these looming issues, such as social security and pension changes combined with economic measures that promote expansion and job creation.
The researchers also emphasized how critical it is to increase women's access to contraception and education in order to reduce the number of livebirths concentrated in areas with high fertility and poor incomes. They predicted far higher fertility decreases in sub-Saharan Africa as a result of the quick expansion of access to contraception and education.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington (UW), in the US, which cordinates the GBD. It is being praised as the broadest and most thorough attempt to measure health loss over time and across locations.
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