On the other hand, he stated that the BJP's goal of 370 seats is unlikely to be achieved..........
Digital desk: Prominent political analyst Prashant Kishor confirmed the BJP's assertions, stating that, except for Karnataka, the ruling party will expand its share of seats and votes across south and east India, where its hold is weak-to-non-existent.
Despite the BJP's seeming dominance, Kishor told PTI editors that neither the party nor Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unbeatable. He pointed out that the opposition had three distinct and realistic opportunities to halt the BJP juggernaut, but they wasted them due to indolence and misguided tactics.
"They (BJP) will either be first or second party in Telangana which is a big thing. They will be number one in Odisha for sure. You would be surprised as, in all likelihood, to my mind, the BJP is going to be the number one party in West Bengal," he said. In Tamil Nadu he said, BJP's vote share may hit double-digit percentage.
In the 543-member Lok Sabha, Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Kerala collectively hold 204 members. However, the BJP was unable to secure 50 seats in all these states combined, having won 29 and 47 seats in 2014 and 2019, respectively.
On the other hand, he stated that the BJP's goal of 370 seats is unlikely to be achieved. He predicted that Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy would find it "very difficult" to return to Andhra Pradesh, where assembly elections are scheduled to coincide with the Lok Sabha elections. When Reddy's YSRC party defeated the Telugu Desam Party, which is currently an ally of the BJP, in 2019, Kishor was employed by Reddy.
Similar to the former chief minister of Chhattisgarh Bhupesh Baghel, Reddy has shifted from being a person who fulfilled people's dreams to a "provider" for his citizens. He compared the current state of affairs to that of the old rulers, who provided their subjects with bounties and indulgences but little more.
In a similar vein, he claimed that while Reddy has made sure that people receive their money, he hasn't done much to advance the state's stagnant development or create jobs.
Regarding the Lok Sabha elections that are scheduled to begin on April 19, he stated that the BJP will only face pressure if the opposition, particularly the Congress, can guarantee that it loses a minimum of 100 seats in its strongholds in north and west India. And he says that's not going to occur.
"By and large, the BJP will be able to hold its ground in these regions," he said.
Over the years, the BJP has made a significant and noticeable effort to spread throughout south and east India, as evidenced by the regular visits of Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah to these regions. However, in these states, the opposition hasn't tried that hard.
"Count the number of visits the prime minister had made to Tamil Nadu in the last five years versus Rahul Gandhi or Sonia Gandhi or any other opposition leader for that matter made in battleground states. Your fight is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. Then how you will get success," he said in an apparent swipe at Rahul Gandhi.
He responded that the opposition party cannot win the nation by winning Kerala by itself when asked about Rahul Gandhi's alleged inability to run from his family's pocket borough of Amethi after losing the seat to Smriti Irani in 2019.
"There is no benefit of winning Wayanad if you lose in UP, Bihar, or Madhya Pradesh. From a strategic standpoint, I can state that closing that area (Amethi) will simply convey the incorrect message," Kishor remarked. It was pointed out to him that Modi had decided to run in 2014 from both his home state of Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, "because you cannot win India unless you win the Hindi heartland or have a significant presence in the Hindi heartland." He claimed that since there is currently a one-on-one race for almost 350 seats, an alliance is neither desired nor effective in defeating the ruling party, despite opposition groups uniting to form the INDIA bloc to challenge the BJP.
He claimed that because the Congress, Samajwadi Party, RJD, NCP, and Trinamool Congress are unable to compete with the BJP directly on their home grounds, the BJP has been winning. He remarked that they lack a story, a face, and an objective.
However, Kishor dismissed ideas that a third consecutive victory will pave the way for an extended period of BJP dominance, pointing out that the Congress's downfall started after it secured its largest victory in 1984 and that it has since failed to seize power on its own.
Regarding the BJP's alleged inexorable march under Modi, he declared, "This is a big illusion," adding that opposition parties, particularly the Congress, had a history of failing to capitalize when the ruling party was in the backseat after 2014.
He said the BJP had a long barren phase electorally in 2015 and 2016 when it lost several assembly polls except in Assam but the opposition allowed it to make a comeback.
Even after winning the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, the Congress "blundered" in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and nearly lost power in Gujarat in 2018. The party also had a difficult time following demonetization.
In 2020, the Covid pandemic caused a decline in Modi's popularity ratings, and the BJP suffered a significant defeat in West Bengal. The prime minister made a political comeback because opposition leaders chose to remain in their houses rather than take up arms, he claimed.
"If you keep dropping catches, the batter will score a century, especially if he is a good batter," Kishor said.
Since the prime minister has made repeated references to "big decisions" that will be made during his third term, as a political observer, he is more interested in the post-election environment and what will happen if Modi receives another significant mandate.
According to him, while BJP followers are excited about the "fundamental changes" that are on the horizon, others who disagree with the party's ideologies are concerned about how the major choices may affect democracy and the Constitution. He noted that there are also sincere concerns among those in the middle.
Since 2014, Kishor has worked for numerous prominent political parties that share different ideological principles, such as the BJP, Congress, and local satraps. However, since October 2022, he has devoted himself to his Jan Suraj Yatra in his native Bihar, with the declared objective of bringing about a new era in the state's politics.
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