India is safe haven for minorities? Hindus in India shrunk 8%, Muslims grew 43% while in Pakistan, Hindus declined: study

Contrasting India's trends with its neighbours, the report reveals a varied landscape

Digital Desk: A recent study by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India (EAC-PM) sheds light on significant demographic shifts in religious populations worldwide. Titled "Share of Religious Minorities – A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)," the study, co-authored by Shamika Ravi, Abraham Jose, and Apurv Kumar Mishra, examines demographic changes across 167 countries where a religious group constituted the majority.

Between 1950 and 2015, the Hindu population in India declined by 7.8%, while Muslims saw a notable increase of 43.15%. Additionally, Christians grew by 5.38%, and Sikhs by 6.58%. The study also indicates a decline in the Jain and Parsi communities over three generations.

Contrasting India's trends with its neighbours, the report reveals a varied landscape. While India's demographic changes align with global trends, neighbouring countries with Muslim-majority populations, such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, experienced an increase in Muslim population share.

In Pakistan, the study notes a 3.75% rise in the majority Hanafi Muslim population and a 10% increase in the total Muslim population, despite the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. However, India witnessed the second-largest decline in its majority Hindu population, following Myanmar.

The study underscores India's positive environment for minority populations, attributing it to progressive policies and inclusive institutions. It praises India's legal definition of minorities and constitutionally protected rights for them.

Furthermore, the study indicates a global trend towards increased religious diversity. It reports a 22% decrease in the share of majority religions worldwide from 1950 to 2015, with 123 countries experiencing declines. However, it also notes an increase in the majority religion's share in 44 countries.

The reasons behind these shifts are multifaceted, including migration, conversion, fertility rates, and political processes. Despite complexities, the study emphasizes the importance of monitoring minority population shares as an indicator of societal well-being.

Drawing on data from the RCS-Dem dataset by ARDA, the study provides comprehensive and consistent religious demographic data. It defines a majority community as one comprising over 50% of a country's population in 1950.

The following analysis is generated using Artificial Intelligence (Not edited by the author):

The key insights from the document “Share of Religious Minorities A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)” on the share of religious minorities in countries over time include:

1. Impact of Societal Environment: 

Countries that provide a conducive environment for minorities tend to see an increase or stabilization in their numbers over three generations, while hostile environments lead to a decrease in minority populations.

2. Use of Demographic Data: 

Demographic information is crucial for understanding the impact of political and social institutions on target populations. For instance, sex ratio is used as an indicator of women's status in society.

3. Religious Demographic Trends: 

The study analyzes changes in the share of minority populations from 1950 onwards, indicating the cumulative impact of supportive policies or discrimination against these groups within countries.

4. Global Trends: 

Religious demographics have significantly changed worldwide between 1950 and 2015, reflecting the policy environment affecting minorities. The share of majority religions has decreased globally, with variations in individual countries.

5. Country-Specific Examples:

Mongolia: 

Saw a rise in its Buddhist population due to historical under-reporting of religious beliefs during the Cold War.

Kazakhstan: 

Experienced a shift from a majority of "None" in 1950 to Hanafi Sunnis in 2015, reflecting changes post-Soviet rule.

India: 

Witnessed a decline in the Hindu majority population, with an increase in Muslim, Christian, Buddhist, and Sikh populations, showcasing a nurturing environment for diversity.

6. Global Comparison:

Africa experienced extreme swings in religious demographics, with 21 out of 40 countries showing significant changes.

High-income OECD countries saw a higher reduction in the share of the majority religious denomination compared to the global average.

These insights highlight the complex interplay between societal environments, historical contexts, and policy impacts on the demographic composition of religious minorities and majorities in various countries over time.