India will overtake China as the most populous country by July, or it may have already happened! Explaining Demographic Games and Their Impacts

• Image Credit: Internet

• Apr 12, 2023 | Kabir Chakraborty

China and India each have about 1.4 billion people, accounting for more than a third of the world's total billion inhabitants.

Digital Desk: China is the world's most populated country, and India has been playing catch-up for quite some time. However, according to the Associated Press, India is on the verge of surpassing its neighbour in the number game. This month, India's population will surpass that of China or perhaps in July or perhaps it has already occurred, according to the story!

A Population Comparison between India and China

With 1,426 million people, China will remain the world's most populated country in 2022. With a population of 1,412 million, India is close behind China.

India's population will reach 1,668 million by 2050. China, whose population has begun to decline, will be far behind at 1,317 million by then. By 2050, there will be 9.7 billion people on the planet.

China's population and single-child scheme: A quick look back

China and India each have about 1.4 billion people, accounting for more than a third of the world's total billion inhabitants.

China has had the most people in the world since at least 1950, when the United Nations began collecting population figures. However, in order to mitigate the effects of the population increase, the ruling Chinese Communist Party enacted the one-child policy in 1980. The plan was only repealed in 2016.

The scheme, however, did not come without consequences. China has an ageing population and slowing growth. According to the Associated Press, a concerned government ruled a few years ago that couples could have up to three children.

How is population compared and calculated? What are the sources?

Demographers at the UN Population Division make estimates based on a wide range of data sources to arrive at the most recent figures. Demographers utilise birth and death records, as well as other administrative data, to assess population growth since that time. As a result, the two countries' national censuses remain the cornerstone of the analysis.

China's most recent census was in 2020, whereas India's was in 2011. The country was forced to postpone the 2021 edition due to the Covid epidemic.

According to the AP article, the Sample Registration System, India's large-scale demographic survey, is also used for comparison. The UN Population Fund believes the agency's poll is reliable "because it employs a very robust methodology."

The data utilised for these computations was last updated in July 2022 for both India and China. Demographers use a statistical technique to predict when India's population will surpass that of China.

Why are specialists unable to forecast a precise date?

As previously stated, the pandemic led India to postpone the 2021 national census. The specialists face significant challenges due to a lack of up-to-date data.

There are valid reasons for this. Demographers cannot predict a specific date because their research is based on guesses. As a result, the best they can tell the citizens of the two countries is that it will happen soon if it hasn't already.

Repercussions mean Advantage India: Here is why

· Unlike China, India has a much younger population, a higher fertility rate, and a decrease in infant mortality over the last three decades. 

· India has more babies born each year than any other country, while China has joined many European countries in having more deaths than births. 

· This means India will see a growing labour force and economic boost as China faces fewer working-age adults able to support an ageing population.

• Once a country reaches a low fertility level, it might be difficult to regain population growth, even with adjustments in government policy to encourage more births, according to experts.

• It is also predicted that when India becomes the world's most populous country, it will bolster the country's claim to a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, which has been a long-standing demand of New Delhi.

• Furthermore, a younger generation would be critical in propelling India's economy to a USD 5 billion economy.

Also Read: Another 4.7 magnitude earthquake strikes Turkey week after deadly temblor