Sivasagar, August 5: The Assam government’s primary explanation for the severe floods that ravaged Upper Assam in July—attributing the devastation to exceptionally heavy rainfall—is now facing critical examination from weather experts. While state officials have highlighted that several affected areas recorded 300-400 per cent excess rainfall during the inundation period, suggesting extraordinary precipitation as the principal cause, meteorologists argue that such percentage figures alone can paint an incomplete picture of the disaster.
Experts contend that a mere percentage departure from normal rainfall, especially for short-duration events, does not fully reveal the true scale or cause of a flood. They emphasize the crucial need to consider the actual volume of rainfall received alongside the period over which it was observed. "The prominent highlighting of percentage figures led many to conclude the floods were exclusively rain-induced," noted one weather expert, stressing that the absolute rainfall amount is equally vital for a comprehensive understanding.
Illustrating this point, an expert cited an instance where a district recorded a staggering 493 per cent above-normal rainfall over a three-day period. However, the cumulative rainfall during this specific interval was 238.9 mm against a normal of 40.3 mm. While significant, the expert implied that without considering other factors, such as antecedent soil moisture, riverine capacity, and local topography, attributing the widespread devastation solely to these rainfall figures might be an oversimplification.
The call from meteorologists underscores the importance of a more nuanced analysis of flood triggers, moving beyond simplified statistics to incorporate a broader range of environmental and hydrological factors. A more holistic understanding could prove invaluable for developing effective long-term flood mitigation and preparedness strategies for the region.
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